气候变化下的Zelkova schneideriana的时空分布变化:一个由Biomod2驱动的建模框架
Mimi Li1,2, Lingdan Wang3, Hailong Liu4
1Institute of Botany, Jiangsu Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210014, China.
Biology
|September 27, 2025
概括
一棵脆弱的中国遗物树Zelkova schneideriana面临着人口减少的危险. 气候变化模型预测未来的息地缩小,需要针对这一危物种进行有针对性的保护工作.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 植物学 植物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 泽尔科瓦·施尼德里亚纳 (Zelkova schneideriana) 是中国特有的三级遗物物种,由于息地丧失和人为压力而处于极度危状态.
- 它被IUCN列为易受伤害的植物,也是国家重点保护植物,其种群减少需要紧急的保护策略.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候变化场景下预测Zelkova schneideriana适合的息地分布模式.
- 确定影响其分布的关键环境变量,并了解其应对气候变化的反应机制.
主要方法:
- 综合 11 种物种分布模型 (SDM) 用于全面的息地预测.
- 在历史,当前和未来的气候条件下对合适息地的时空空间分析.
- 确定了关键的生物气候变量和海拔作为分布的主要驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 在冰川时期,适合息地受到限制,并确定了潜在的避难所.
- 目前的适宜息地已扩大,但预计在未来的高排放场景下 (SSP585) 将大幅缩小.
- 预计中国东北部适合地区将明显向更高的海拔地区转移,这表明海拔迁移.
结论:
- 气候变化对Zelkova schneideriana构成重大威胁,预计将导致息地大幅收缩.
- 保护战略应专注于湖南,湖北和重庆的山区,预测海拔变化.
- 提供了用于预测气候变化下的遗迹物种息地的方法见解.
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