基于机器学习的预测与热浪相关的住院治疗:塞内加尔马塔姆的一个案例研究
Mory Toure1,2, Ibrahima Sy3,4,5, Ibrahima Diouf2,6
1Agence Nationale de l'Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar BP 8184, Senegal.
International journal of environmental research and public health
|September 27, 2025
概括
热浪在塞内加尔的马塔姆地区显著增加了住院人数,显著延迟了3-5天. 加强气候预报和热浪监测对公共卫生至关重要,特别是对弱势群体至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 热浪对全球公众健康构成越来越大的威胁.
- 了解热浪对医疗保健系统的具体影响对于适应至关重要.
- 塞内加尔的马塔姆地区特别容易受到极端高温事件的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估热浪对塞内加尔马塔姆地区住院患者的影响.
- 为了确定热浪事件与住院率之间的时间关系.
- 为了比较不同机器学习模型在预测热浪相关住院治疗中的表现.
主要方法:
- 利用每日最高温度 (TMAX) 和热量指数 (HI) 来识别热浪事件 (2017-2022).
- 分析了Ourossogui地区医院的住院数据.
- 采用并比较随机森林 (RF),极端梯度增强 (XGB) 和通用添加模型 (GAMs) 与启动强度.
主要成果:
- 观察到一个显著的延迟效应,住院治疗达到热浪后3-5天的峰值.
- 随机森林模型表现出卓越的性能,达到0.51至0.72.7之间的R2值.
- 热浪事件与增加的住院病例有很强的相关性.
结论:
- 热浪对马坦地区的住院患者有明显的延迟影响.
- 随机森林是建模热浪相关健康影响的有效工具.
- 将基于影响的气候预测纳入健康早期预警系统对于保护弱势群体至关重要.
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