罗马尼亚长期麻疹疫情的时空模型和预测:洞察力和挑战
Valerian-Ionuț Stoian1,2, Aurora Stănescu2,3, Mihaela Debita1,4
1Faculty of Medicine & Pharmacy, 'Dunărea de Jos' University of Galați, 800008 Galati, Romania.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 27, 2025
概括
麻疹继续影响罗马尼亚,区域之间确定了空间反循环. 预测表明,麻疹可能会持续到2025-2026年,需要针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 麻疹在罗马尼亚是一个重大的公共卫生挑战,导致了大量的发病率.
- 了解麻疹传播的时空动态对于有效干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定在罗马尼亚各县和地区传播的麻疹的时间和空间趋势.
- 使用先进的分析模型预测未来的麻疹疫情.
- 为控制麻疹的公共卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用Python对已报告的麻疹病例 (2020年1月至2024年12月) 进行大数据分析.
- 基于统计领域的领土单位命名法 (NUTS) 的地理空间分析.
- 使用SARIMA和霍尔特-温特斯模型进行时间序列预测.
主要成果:
- 确定了县和宏观区域之间的显著空间反循环 (例如,Centru-Brașov和București-Ilfov,相关性为0.77).
- 与SARIMA (MAE 1616.74) 相比,霍尔特-温特斯模型为2025-2026年 (MAE 1281.99) 提供了更可靠的每月麻疹预测.
- 预测表明,麻疹将继续成为公共卫生负担.
结论:
- 空间反循环和疫苗接种率的下降有助于持续出现麻疹.
- 预计麻疹病例在2025-2026年持续存在,这凸显了持续公共卫生工作的必要性.
- 这项研究为未来的麻疹预测和干预计划提供了基础.
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