在皮肤黑色素瘤患者中,开发名图来预测特定部位的复发概率
Eszter Anna Janka1,2, Imre Lőrinc Szabó1,2, Tünde Toka-Farkas1
1Department of Dermatology, MTA Centre of Excellence, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, 4032 Debrecen, Hungary.
Cancers
|September 27, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了名谱模型来预测黑色素瘤复发风险. 这些模型利用了AJCC pT阶段和患者性别等临床病理因素,显示了改善患者管理的良好表现.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 风险评估模型对于个性化瘤治疗和随访至关重要.
- 准确预测黑色素瘤复发对于患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在特定位置确定黑色素瘤复发的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于预测黑色素瘤复发概率的诺米克模型.
主要方法:
- 利用大学医院注册数据库 (2000-2019) 采用了1402名 (培训) 和601名 (验证) 侵袭性皮肤黑色素瘤患者.
- 采用多变量考克斯回归模型来确定独立的预后因素.
- 构建了名ograms来预测3,5年和10年的复发概率.
主要成果:
- 确定了年龄,性别,瘤位置,组织学,入侵水平和AJCC pT类别作为区域淋巴结复发的关键预后因素.
- AJCC pT类别和性别是远程复发 (肺部,内脏,大脑) 的重要预测因素.
- 在训练和验证队伍中,诺莫图表表现出良好的预测性能和校准.
结论:
- AJCC pT 阶段和患者的性别是所有黑色素瘤阶段的非常有价值的预后指标.
- 在预测黑色素瘤复发风险方面,Nomogram模型是可行的和有效的.
- 这些模型可以帮助完善黑色素瘤患者的治疗和随访策略.
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