法医填料控制方法是否减少了检查人员的过度自信? 使用模拟指纹检查器进行实验性调查
Hannah J Rath1, Bethany Rocha1, Andrew M Smith2
1School of Interdisciplinary Forensics, Arizona State University, Glendale, AZ 85306, USA.
Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)
|September 27, 2025
概括
法医填充-控制方法,旨在减少检查员的过度自信,在法医科学评估中意外地恶化了准确性和过度自信. 这种方法并没有改善法医分析的标准程序.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 法律证词 法律证词
背景情况:
- 检查员对法医科学的过度信心导致了错误的定罪.
- 过度自信发生在主观确定性超过客观准确性时.
- 减少过度自信的建议方法包括法医填充剂控制方法.
研究的目的:
- 评估法医填充剂控制方法在减少检查员过度自信方面的有效性.
- 将填充剂控制方法的准确性和校准与标准法医分析程序进行比较.
- 评估填充剂控制方法对有罪证和无罪证证据价值的影响.
主要方法:
- 在本科生和法医科学生样本上进行了两项实验.
- 参与者使用标准方法或填充剂控制方法进行了法医分析.
- 填充剂控制方法涉及将已知不匹配的"填充剂"样本与可疑样本一起呈现,以提供错误反.
主要成果:
- 填充控制方法并没有减少考官过度自信;相反,它导致了更糟糕的校准和更大的过度自信在比赛判断.
- 使用填充剂控制方法,不匹配判断的准确性较低,降低了其免责值 (负预测值).
- 填充剂控制方法通过将虚假阳性转移到填充剂来提高负罪证据 (积极预测值) 的可靠性.
结论:
- 经过测试,法医填料控制方法并不优于法医分析的标准程序.
- 两种方法都不能统一地提高法医证据的指责和免责价值.
- 需要替代程序来提高法医评估的可靠性和准确性.
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