在纽约州锡拉丘兹的COVID-19大流行期间分析枪支暴力模式的稳定性
Peng Gao1, Sarah E Van Horne2, David A Larsen3
1Department of Geography and the Environment, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, 13244, USA. pegao@syr.edu.
International journal of health geographics
|September 27, 2025
概括
随着COVID-19的流行,纽约州锡拉丘兹的地理空间枪支暴力模式并没有发生变化. 枪支暴力仍然集中在特定地区,这是由结构因素驱动的,而不是大流行.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 枪支暴力是美国重要的公共卫生问题.
- 了解地理空间模式对于预防策略至关重要.
- COVID-19大流行对枪支暴力分布的影响还没有得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查COVID-19是否改变了纽约锡拉丘兹枪支暴力的地理空间模式.
- 分析2009-2023年年度枪击总数 (ATG) 的空间和时间趋势.
- 评估流行病相关政策与结构因素对暴力分布的影响.
主要方法:
- 在人口普查区组 (2009-2023) 中汇总的年度枪击总量 (ATG) 的分析.
- 地理空间技术的应用:平均中心,标准距离,莫兰的I,Getis-Ord Gi*.
- 流行前和流行期间的比较,以确定空间模式和热点的变化.
主要成果:
- 疫情前的ATG数量高于疫情期间的ATG数量.
- 地理中心和ATG的标准距离保持一致.
- 在这两个时期都观察到一致的局部热点和距离衰变效应.
- 枪支暴力在已建立的地区内加剧,而不是在整个城市蔓延.
结论:
- COVID-19并没有显著改变锡拉丘兹枪支暴力的地理空间模式.
- 根深蒂固的结构条件,如社会经济差距,是枪支暴力的主要驱动因素.
- 未来的预防应侧重于持久的模式和结构性决定因素,而不是短期波动.
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