一个专家的诱导,以告知沿海管理决策,以减轻未来的危险
Davina L Passeri1, Matthew Richardson2, Julien Martin2
1U.S. Geological Survey, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St Petersburg, FL, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|September 28, 2025
概括
沿海恢复的可行性被评估使用专家诱导. 专家预测,随着海平面上升 (SLR),风暴潮洪水增加,但海营养可能会减少侵蚀.
科学领域:
- 沿海科学 沿海科学
- 环境管理环境管理
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 沿海环境因气候变化而面临越来越多的危险,需要适应性管理策略.
- 评估恢复行动的可行性对于有效减轻沿海危险和实现管理目标至关重要.
- 海平面上升对沿海生态系统和基础设施构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用专家判断,根据未来的危险情景评估沿海环境恢复的可行性.
- 提供沿海变化指标的概率估计,以告知管理行动的决策.
- 将利益关方的意见纳入评估沿海恢复替代方案的过程中.
主要方法:
- 进行了科学专家提取过程,涉及主题专家.
- 专家们对2050年沿海变化指标 (盐沼面积,风暴潮洪水,屏障岛形态) 进行了概率估计.
- 考虑了三个管理场景 (不采取行动,内陆头部恢复,海和沙丘营养) 和未来海平面上升的影响 (SLR).
主要成果:
- 专家们自信地预测,随着SLR的增加,风暴浪潮的洪水增加,无论管理干预措施如何.
- 沼泽应对估计显示高不确定性;沼泽面积预计在"不采取行动"情景下随着SLR减少.
- 预计沙丘高度和屏障岛宽度将在没有干预的情况下随着SLR减少,而营养可能会减少侵蚀.
结论:
- 专家提取提供了一种新且有价值的工具,用于为沿海管理决策提供信息,并确定未来的研究需求.
- 了解SLR和生物地质物理过程的动态相互作用对于有效的沿海管理至关重要.
- 管理干预措施的规模和位置显著影响沿海对未来危险的反应.
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