农场到消费者的定量微生物风险评估模型,用于新鲜切割的西瓜上的Listeria monocytogenes
Sarah I Murphy1, Ece Bulut1, Laura K Strawn2
1Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
Journal of food protection
|September 28, 2025
概括
一个定量微生物风险评估模型对新鲜切割的西瓜中的Listeria monocytogenes (LM) 确定包装后的温度和时间是减少污染和疾病风险的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 食品安全微生物学 食品安全微生物学
- 定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA)
- 通过食物传播的病原体建模
背景情况:
- 甘露花是整个供应链中Listeria monocytogenes (LM) 污染的潜在载体.
- 了解新鲜切割的西瓜中的LM污染动态对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 现有的QMRA模型需要涵盖整个新鲜切割的西瓜供应链.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个QMRA模型,用于从收获到消费的新鲜切割西瓜中的LM污染.
- 为了估计美国新鲜切割的西瓜的李斯特菌病 (疾病和死亡) 的年度负担.
- 评估各种风险降低策略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个全面的QMRA模型,整合了从收获到家庭储存的数据.
- 该模型模拟了每份LM度,并估计了每年的疾病和死亡.
- 进行了灵敏度分析,以确定关键控制点和有影响力的参数.
主要成果:
- 基线QMRA预测了每份李斯特菌病的低中位风险 (1.4 × 10−12一般,6.4 × 10−11易感人群).
- 每年预测疾病和死亡的中位数为0 (分别为0-1070和0-264).
- 包装后的温度/时间和收获时的初始LM水平显著影响了污染和疾病;初始LM和加工时的交叉污染影响了流行率.
结论:
- 包装后的温度和时间控制是降低新鲜切割的西瓜中LM风险的有效策略.
- 开发的QMRA工具有助于识别和评估整个供应链的干预措施.
- 该模型为估计新鲜切割的风险和指导食品安全实践提供了一个框架.
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