瑞士儿童初级护理的不平衡获取:地理差异和模拟的未来挑战
Michael von Rhein1, Joel Hauser2, Lucas Haldimann3
1University Children's Hospital Zurich, Child Development Center, University of Zurich, Lenggstrasse 30, Zurich, CH-8008, Switzerland. michael.vonrhein@kispi.uzh.ch.
瑞士面临着日益严重的初级保健儿科医生 (PCP) 短缺,特别是在农村和北部地区. 未来的退休将加剧儿科护理的差距,需要紧急调整医疗保健模式.
科学领域:
- 儿科初级护理 儿科初级护理
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 儿童护理的准入是一个全球性的问题,许多国家都面临着儿童初级保健提供者退休的挑战.
- 有效的统计模型对于理解当前和未来儿科初级保健的分布和需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定瑞士的初级保健儿科医生 (PCP) 的数量,年龄,地理分布和可访问性.
- 模拟未来五年因退休而需要PCP替代品的区域需求.
主要方法:
- 一项以人口为基础的研究,使用基于修改的哈夫模型的可变3级浮动流域区域 (MHV3SFCA) 方法.
- 使用联邦统计局 (FSO) 和STATPOP数据计算供应密度指数 (SDI) 并创建可访问性地图.
主要成果:
- 在2019年,瑞士有1332个PCP服务于1335,177名15岁以下的儿童.
- 发现了显著的区域差异,北方和农村地区的PCP密度低于推的60%.
- 预计到2029年,大约四分之一的瑞士儿科医生将退休,加剧劳动力短缺问题.
结论:
- 该研究强调了瑞士目前儿童初级保健服务的地理差异.
- 预期的退休将加剧这些差异,导致许多瑞士地区出现严重的PCP短缺.
- 对儿科医疗保健模型的调整是必要的,以防止服务不足,该方法在全球范围内适用.
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