意见动态对反复出现的流行病浪潮的影响:平衡风险厌恶和同行压力
Sheryl L Chang1, Quang Dang Nguyen1, Carl Joseph Edmund Suster2,3
1Centre for Complex Systems, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Interface focus
|September 29, 2025
概括
社会动态,包括风险感知和同行压力,显著影响社会距离 (SD) 行为,并可以解释反复出现的流行病浪潮. 了解这些因素对于流行病的结果至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 传染病建模传染病建模
背景情况:
- 经常出现的流行病波源于公共卫生干预措施,人口行为,病原体进化和宿主免疫力之间的复杂相互作用.
- 疾病发病率和基于观点的社会距离 (SD) 采用之间的反循环,特别是与异质人口和免疫力下降之间的反循环,是不太了解的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个论动态模型,集成到基于代理的模拟中,以了解反复出现的流行病浪潮的驱动因素.
- 调查个人风险感知和社会同行压力如何影响采用社交距离行为.
主要方法:
- 创建了一个意见动态模型,以模拟基于个人风险感知和同行影响的SD行为变化.
- 该模型被整合到澳大利亚COVID-19 Omicron变种 (2021年12月 - 2022年6月) 的基于代理物的大规模模拟中.
主要成果:
- 由风险厌恶和社会压力 (家庭/工作场所) 驱动的社交距离采用的波动,可以复制多波流行病模式.
- 由于流行病学因素是不变的,仅仅社会动态就能产生反复出现的浪潮,突出显示它们的重大影响.
结论:
- 社会动态在塑造流行病轨迹和在流行病期间产生反复出现的浪潮方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 除了流行病学因素之外,模拟观点驱动的行为对于全面了解流行病传播和控制至关重要.
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