经济和金融前景如何指导转型适应海平面上升
Kees C H van Ginkel1,2, Bart Rijken1, Marco Hoogvliet1
1Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.
概括
沿海城市面临着海平面上升. 适应土地利用是对更高的防洪防御的替代方案,但这两种策略的经济和金融风险都需要纳入适应规划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球海岸线面临着不断上升的海平面,需要新的沿海适应战略.
- 像荷兰这样的三角洲的传统方法强调大规模的防洪系统.
- 新兴的替代方案包括调整土地利用以适应日益增加的洪水风险,称为"适应-撤退".
研究的目的:
- 扩大关于沿海适应战略的讨论范围,超越自然科学和工程科学.
- 突出与传统防洪系统相关的金融和经济风险.
- 倡导将经济和财务考虑纳入沿海适应规划.
主要方法:
- 关于沿海适应战略的文献综述.
- 分析防洪系统的财务和经济影响.
- 根据"适应-撤退"情景,研究房地产值风险.
主要成果:
- 目前关于沿海适应的辩论主要集中在自然和工程方面.
- 越来越多的防洪措施带来了巨大的财务风险.
- 住宿或撤退策略可能导致房地产值.
结论:
- 沿海适应规划需要一个整体的方法,整合经济和金融因素.
- 忽视防洪和土地利用适应的经济层面会带来重大风险.
- 需要进行全面的对话,将金融机制纳入适应性海岸线的适应性话语中.
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