评估各国对孕产妇死亡率估计的差异:比较2020年GMatH,UN和GBD模型的结果
Zachary J Ward1,2, Rifat Atun2,3,4, Gary King5
1Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
EClinicalMedicine
|September 29, 2025
概括
来自全球孕产妇健康 (GMatH) 模型的孕产妇死亡率估计高于联合国和GBD模型. 将这些模型进行比较有助于改进估计,并指导政策,以减少产妇死亡率.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 产妇死亡率估计对于政策,资源分配和跟踪可持续发展目标至关重要.
- 全球孕产妇健康 (GMatH) 模型提供了全球和国家一级的孕产妇死亡率估计.
- 现有的模型包括来自联合国 (UN) 和全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究的模型.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较2020年来自GMatH,联合国和GBD模型的国家一级孕产妇死亡率估计.
- 总结差异,评估模型的趋同,并调查估计差异的原因.
- 为政策提供信息,并完善产妇死亡率估计方法.
主要方法:
- 对2020年产妇死亡率和产妇死亡率 (MMR) 的国家一级估计进行比较分析.
- 使用了来自联合国 (v2023),GBD (v2021) 和GMatH (v2023) 模型的数据.
- 对具有显著模型差异的国家的经验性死亡数据进行了检查,例如孕妇死亡率.
主要成果:
- 与联合国和GBD模型相比,GMatH模型的产妇死亡率 (43-49%高) 和MMR (19-22%高) 的平均估计较高.
- 在GMatH和UN (87.9%) 和GBD (82.8%) 的MMR估计之间观察到很高的趋同,但对于一些国家存在很大的差异.
- 基于调查的孕妇死亡率通常是具有很大的模型间差异的国家的主要经验数据.
结论:
- 虽然孕产妇死亡率估计在GMatH,联合国和GBD模型中基本相似,但在某些国家存在显著差异.
- GMatH模型的结构性方法,包括各种数据,如妊娠死亡率比率,可以提高估计的稳定性.
- 交叉模型比较对于建立对汇聚估计的信心和理解差异至关重要,以改进减少孕产妇死亡率的战略.
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