一项关于决定树方法用于预测EO/EG设施泄漏和扩散危险的研究.
Qi Cao1,2, Zhi Zhang1,2, Yuntao Mu1,2,3
1State Key Laboratory of Chemical Safety, Qingdao 266000, China.
ACS omega
|September 29, 2025
概括
一个新的决策树模型准确地预测了乙烯氧化物 (EO) 和乙烯基醇 (EG) 泄漏分散在大面积. 这种快速预测有助于防止严重的石化事故.
科学领域:
- 石化安全工程 石化安全工程
- 化学过程危险分析 化学过程危险分析
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
背景情况:
- 乙烯氧化物 (EO) 和乙烯糖醇 (EG) 是重要的石化物.
- 电气工程/电气工程设施面临着严重的火灾和爆炸风险,导致严重后果.
- 准确预测大面积事故后果对于风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个快速预测模型,用于涉及乙烯氧化物和乙烯糖醇的大型事故.
- 评估EO/EG设施中泄漏场景的后果.
- 加强石化行业的风险预防和控制策略.
主要方法:
- 决策树理论被应用来开发一个预测模型.
- 通过使用FLACS软件定义和模拟了EO/EG设施的90个泄漏场景.
- 80个气相度分布数据数据集用于培训和验证 (60/20分).
主要成果:
- 决策树模型准确地预测了EO/EG泄漏分散在超过1平方公里的区域.
- 开发的模型的预测准确度超过了90%.
- 该模型展示了对分散模式和度分布的快速预测能力.
结论:
- 该研究成功地利用有限的模拟数据实现了EO/EG泄漏分散的快速预测.
- 开发的模型为EO/EG设施的风险预防和控制提供了关键支持.
- 这种方法提高了在石化行业管理潜在大面积事故的能力.
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