马尔科夫建模以估计新兴烟草产品对人口的影响:一项概念验证研究
Caroline O Cobb1, Andrea C Villanti1, Amanda L Graham1
1Caroline O. Cobb, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Andrea C. Villanti, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Amanda L. Graham, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jennifer L. Pearson, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Allison M. Glasser, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Jessica M. Rath, Department of Evaluation Science and Research, Legacy, Washington, DC. Cassandra A. Stanton, Westat, Rockville, MD. David T. Levy, Department of Oncology, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC. David B. Abrams, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC. Raymond Niaura, The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC.
一个新的建模工具估计了电子烟等新兴烟草产品对人口的影响. 该模型预测电子烟和双重使用的流行率将在10年内在1%至2%之间.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 控制烟草的控制方式
- 卫生政策 卫生政策
背景情况:
- 新兴的烟草产品,如电子烟,由于使用模式不断变化,对公众健康构成挑战.
- 评估这些产品对人口的影响对于有效的烟草控制战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和演示一个建模工具来评估新兴烟草产品对人口的影响.
- 在美国人口中运行和估计目前和未来的香烟,电子烟和双重烟草制品使用模式.
主要方法:
- 离散状态马尔科夫模型是使用TreeAge Pro 2014开发的.
- 国家过渡概率来自美国年轻成年人的纵向调查,并与国家数据进行了调整.
主要成果:
- 调整后的基准案例模型近似地估计了10年内全国吸烟和以前吸烟的流行率.
- 该模型预测,在同一时间内,电子烟和双重使用的流行率在1%至2%之间.
结论:
- 本研究提出了一个概念验证启发式工具,用于评估新烟草产品对现有产品使用的影响.
- 该工具有助于运行美国食品和药物管理局的烟草产品监管公共卫生标准.
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