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一个预测模型的构建和验证,以预测大动脉结石化的进展

Zhen Guo^1,2, Zhenyu Xiong^1,2, Chaoguang Xu^1,2

¹Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China.

|September 29, 2025

概括

一个新的预测模型准确地预测了大动脉结石化 (AVC) 的进展. 该工具有助于识别高风险患者,以定制预防策略,改善疾病管理.

科学领域:

心脏病学心脏病学
医疗信息学医疗信息学
预测分析是一种预测分析.

背景情况:

大动脉结石化 (AVC) 是一种重要的心血管疾病.
预测AVC的进展对于及时干预至关重要.
目前评估AVC进展风险的方法需要改进.

研究的目的:

开发和验证一种预测模型,用于评估AVC患者疾病进展的可能性.
为了确定AVC进展的关键预测因素.
创建一个工具来分层患者到风险群体.

主要方法:

利用了来自2533名AVC患者的数据,随机分配到培训和验证组 (7:3比率).
雇佣最小绝对缩小和选择运算符 (LASSO) 和可变选择的考克斯回归.
构建了一个Cox比例风险模型,使用校准曲线,C指数,ROC曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 进行验证.
进行了生存分析 (Kaplan-Meier) 并开发了一个在线平台,用于临床实用.

主要成果:

确定了7个变量与AVC进展有显著相关性.
预测模型的准确性很高,曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和C指数在两组中都超过0.8.
校准曲线显示出密切一致,DCA证实了临床效用.
高风险患者表现出明显更高的进展率.

结论:

开发的模型可靠地预测2年,3年和4年的AVC进展率.
该模型为估计进展风险提供了一个强大的框架.
为AVC患者提供个性化,全面的预防策略.

关键词:

大动脉的化化.在线平台网络平台预测模型是一个预测模型.这是一个渐进的过程.

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