登革热风险随着厄尔尼诺-南方振荡幅度和远程连接的增加而增加
Yunyu Tian1,2, Yiting Xu1, Yilin Liang1,2
1National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases, Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|September 29, 2025
概括
全球气候变化,特别是厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件,显著影响登革热疫情. 气候变化可能会加剧这种联系,增加未来的登革热病例.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化与大规模登革热爆发有关,但机制尚不清楚.
- 了解气候与登革热之间的关系对于预测和管理流行病至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球气候变化和登革热病例之间的关联.
- 量化气候远程连接对登革热流行病的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自57个国家的登革热病例和气候数据 (1980-2024).
- 集成的全球气候远程连接,温度和降水数据.
- 在气候登革热协会中对区域异质性进行控制.
主要成果:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 波动解释了63%的登革热病例变化.
- 特定的ENSO事件 (1982-2024) 导致数百万额外的登革热病例.
- 人类引起的变暖可能会使未来的登革热病例增加39.0-81.7%.
结论:
- 全球气候变化,特别是ENSO,是登革热流行病的重要驱动因素.
- 气候变化通过加强气候远程连接扩大登革热爆发的风险.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要基于气候的登革热预防策略.
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