北极海路的通道重新塑造了全球航运的碳排放
Pengjun Zhao1,2, Yunlin Li3, Caixia Zhang4
1College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China. pengjun.zhao@pku.edu.cn.
Nature communications
|September 29, 2025
概括
北极冰川融化开辟了北极海路 (ASR),到2100年全球航运排放量增加8.2%. 目前的战略不足;只有净零方法才能消除与ASR相关的排放,并保护北极环境.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海上物流的海上物流
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化导致北极冰川融化,正在开辟北极海路 (ASR).
- 亚洲贸易区提供了更短的全球贸易路线,但带来了重大的环境风险.
- 提高航行能力需要了解长期的碳影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化加大北极海路通道的长期碳排放影响.
- 评估当前和拟议的减排战略对北极航运排放的有效性.
- 评估不断变化的排放模式对环境正义的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用贸易综合航运排放预测 (TISEP) 模型.
- 综合全球贸易场景,船舶路线数据和气候政策路径.
- 分析了各种减缓策略下的排放影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,北极海路的使用将使全球航运排放量增加8.2%.
- 北极特定排放量预计将从0.22%上升到2.72%.
- 预计东北亚,北欧和北美地区的排放暴露率将大幅增加.
结论:
- 现有的战略 (IMO 2023,绿色走廊) 不足以实现北极减排目标.
- 为了消除与ASR相关的排放,需要采用严格的燃料标准和分阶段实施的净零战略.
- 迫切需要采取前性行动,减轻航运排放,保护北极,确保环境正义.
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