早期职业生涯的挫折和未来在职业体育中的成就
Suman Kalyan Maity1,2,3,4, Yang Wang1,2,3,5, Nima Dehmamy1,2,3
1Center for Science of Science and Innovation, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA.
Scientific reports
|September 29, 2025
概括
过去的成功预测了未来的结果,但并不总是如此. 一些非获胜者表现优于以前的获胜者,这凸显了体育界及其他领域需要更广泛的人才评估的需要.
科学领域:
- 人类的表现人类的表现
- 运动科学 运动科学
- 人才识别 人才识别
背景情况:
- 过去的成功被广泛认为是未来人类表现的主要预测因素.
- 这个原则影响了各种领域的选择,机会和不平等.
- 了解绩效预测对于人才管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地检查过去的成功对未来体育结果的预测能力.
- 确定"过去的成功预测未来的成功"原则的例外情况.
- 为人才寻找和评估策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 追踪了世界级田径运动中的年轻运动员,比较了奖牌获得者和非奖牌获得者.
- 在一个自然实验中分析了网球运动员,其中包括"幸运的失败者"与那些差点错过资格的人.
- 在不同的体育环境中采用了两种不同的经验策略.
主要成果:
- 过去的表现通常与未来的结果相关,但存在显著的例外.
- 最初被归类为非赢家的个人有时会超过赢家的未来表现.
- 超越目标的表现并不总是转化为优异的未来结果.
结论:
- 虽然过去的成功是一个有价值的指标,但它并非无误.
- 人才评估应考虑获胜和不获胜的经验.
- 认识到多样化的潜力可以增强人才池和结果.
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