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设计风暴估计用于评估温带喜马拉雅盆地的洪水风险,使用水文建模
Mohmmad Idrees Attar1, Junaid Nazir Khan2, Yasir Altaf3
1College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, SKUAST-Kashmir, Shalimar Srinagar, 190025, India. attaridrees@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|September 29, 2025
概括
这项研究使用HEC-HMS模型分析了克什米尔的洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 环境建模环境建模
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 洪水频率分析和水文建模对于管理水资源和缓解洪水至关重要,特别是在容易发生极端天气事件的地区.
- 克什米尔的Jhelum盆地容易受到重大洪水影响,需要详细的风险评估.
- 之前的研究没有为该地区提供以事件为基础的亚流域规模的风暴设计分析.
研究的目的:
- 应用HEC-HMS水文模型来模拟降雨-排水过程,并为各种回归期生成基于事件的设计风暴.
- 评估在克什米尔的Jhelum盆地内的子流域水域的洪水风险模式.
- 提供高分辨率的洞察力,以缓解山区的洪水和基础设施规划.
主要方法:
- 利用水文工程中心的水文建模系统 (HEC-HMS) 进行降雨-流水模拟.
- 采用ModClark用于降雨转换,线性水库方法用于基流,以及Muskingum方法用于洪水路由.
- 整合了基于卫星的格式降雨数据和子盆地特定的湿度图,并使用观察到的排放数据 (2020-2023) 进行模型校准和验证.
主要成果:
- 该HEC-HMS模型在模拟观察到的水文图表 (R2>0.78,NSE>0.56) 中表现出强的性能.
- 灵敏度分析确定了曲线数,度时间和透率作为关键模型参数.
- 在子流域中确定了各种水文反应,特定区域显示高峰排放或长时间的洪水保留,城市化区域显示脆弱性.
结论:
- 该研究成功地使用HEC-HMS在克什米尔下流域规模生成了基于事件的设计风暴,提供了新的高分辨率洪水风险洞察力.
- 这些发现强调了HEC-HMS模型作为山区的非结构性洪水减缓工具的有效性.
- 结果为明智的基础设施规划和风险管理策略提供了关键数据,以提高Jhelum盆地的抗洪能力.
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