在残疾老年护理人员中,缓解服务需求的确定优先级和预测建模
Yiqiang An1, Lei Cao2, Zhiwen Li1,3
1The Health Policy Research Institute of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, 221004, Jiangsu, China.
Scientific reports
|September 29, 2025
概括
这项研究确定了影响残疾老年人家庭护理人员缓解服务需求的关键因素. 开发了一个预测模型,以帮助识别需要支持的护理人员.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 照顾残疾老年人的家庭成员经常面临重大挑战.
- 获得缓解服务对于护理人员的福祉和护理的可持续性至关重要.
- 识别影响缓解服务需求的因素对于有针对性的支持至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索影响残疾老年人家庭护理人员中缓解服务需求的因素.
- 开发和验证一个名ogram模型,用于预测休息服务的需求.
- 评估预测模型的临床实用性,以确定有需要的护理人员.
主要方法:
- 招募了356名家庭护理人员的队列,并分为培训 (n=249) 和验证 (n=107) 组.
- 用单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析来确定影响因素.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析构建和验证了一个名ogram模型.
主要成果:
- 关键影响因素包括照顾者的年龄,家庭收入,照顾时间,照顾频率,自我照顾能力和社区支持 (所有P<0.05).
- 诺莫格拉姆模型表现出强大的预测性能,C指数值为0.883 (训练) 和0.823 (验证).
- 在ROC曲线 (AUC) 下的面积分别为0.859和0.894,表明了良好的预测准确性.
结论:
- 一些人口,社会经济和支持相关的因素显著影响了对缓解服务的需求.
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型是一个可靠的,临床上适用的工具,用于识别需要休息服务的家庭护理人员.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助决策者和医疗保健提供者有效地分配资源,以支持残疾老年人的家庭照顾者.
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