评估和绘制气候变化对南萨斯喀彻温省春季小麦产量的影响,使用DSSAT和高分辨率RCM预测
Mohammad Zare1, Shahid Azam2, David Sauchyn1
1Prairie Adaptations Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, S4S 0A2, Canada.
Scientific reports
|September 29, 2025
概括
气候变化可能会在萨斯喀彻温州最初提高春季小麦产量,但预计在遥远的未来将会下降,特别是在南部地区. 北部地区可能会因为更湿的条件和更长的生长季节而增加产量.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 农业学是一种农业学.
背景情况:
- 气候变化对加拿大作物生产的影响需要详细评估.
- 萨斯喀彻温省是全球主要的小麦生产国,因此其产量预测至关重要.
- 了解区域气候影响对于农业适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估和绘制未来气候变化对萨斯喀彻温省春季小麦产量的影响.
- 在作物产量预测上建模高分辨率的气候场景.
- 分析萨斯喀彻温省的产量变化的区域变化.
主要方法:
- 使用CERES-小麦模块使用农业技术转让决策支持系统 (DSSAT).
- 应用了十个高分辨率的区域气候变化场景.
- 根据历史基线和未来时期 (近期,中期,远期) 验证了模型.
主要成果:
- DSSAT模型在模拟春季小麦产量方面表现出高准确度.
- 预计收益率的中位数增长为16.1% (近期),27.5% (中期) 和10.9% (远期).
- 由于干旱性增加,南萨斯喀彻温省的产量预计将下降,而北部地区可能会出现收益.
结论:
- 未来的气候变化给萨斯喀彻温省春季小麦生产带来了复杂的前景.
- 产量影响的区域差异需要定制的适应策略.
- 高分辨率建模揭示了气候变化下的预计小麦产量的显著空间变化.
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