在绘制欧大西洋大气河流的地图时,结构上的不确定性阻碍了对相关的极端气象现象的理解
Venugopal Thandlam1,2,3, Anna Rutgersson4,5, Erik Sahlée4
1Air, Water and Landscape Science (LUVAL), Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden. venu.thandlam@geo.uu.se.
Scientific reports
|September 30, 2025
概括
大气河流 (AR) 的结构不确定性会影响欧洲大西洋地区的极端气象. 了解这些变化对于气候适应和危害减轻战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 大气河流 (ARs) 是极端天气事件的重要驱动因素.
- 在AR结构的不确定性可以影响相关的极端气象的特征.
- 有效的气候适应和危害减缓需要了解这些AR不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 调查AR结构不确定性和欧洲大西洋地区的极端气象现象之间的统计关系.
- 评估AR维度不确定性对降水,风和温度异常和极端的影响.
- 分析不同的大气河概率 (ARP) 值如何影响AR冲击的大小.
主要方法:
- 利用了从1940年到2022年ECMWF再分析v5 (ERA5) 的长期历史数据.
- 采用贝叶斯式AR检测 (BARD) 模型,这是极端气候分析工具包 (TECA) 中的一种机器学习方法.
- 分析了AR结构不确定性对欧洲,英国和斯堪的纳维亚地区每日降水,风速以及温度异常和极端的影响.
主要成果:
- 综合AR概率 (ARP) 的广泛传播影响了AR的属性,如频率和强度 (IVT).
- 在研究期间,AR强度和登陆区域呈现出增长的趋势.
- 与沿海地区相比,AR结构不确定性的影响在欧洲内陆和斯堪的纳维亚地区更为明显.
结论:
- AR的结构不确定性对极端气象的特征有很大影响.
- 不管ARP的门值如何,AR强度和登陆面积都在增加.
- 需要进一步的研究来探索驱动着陆上的AR影响的物理机制.
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