从社交媒体上的疫苗情绪预测传染病爆发风险:基于数据的动态系统方法
1Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1 Canada.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|September 30, 2025
概括
深度学习模型有效地检测疫苗情绪中的早期预警信号,优于传统方法. 这一进步有助于预测疾病爆发,利用社交媒体数据进行公共卫生干预.
科学领域:
- 复杂的动态系统是复杂的动态系统.
- 行为流行病学行为流行病学.
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 预测复杂系统中的关键过渡对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 公共情绪的变化,就像疫苗的态度一样,可以在疾病爆发之前发生.
- 传统的统计早期预警信号在杂的现实数据中扎.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估深度学习分类器,用于检测社交媒体时间序列中的早期预警信号.
- 将深度学习模型的性能与传统的统计指标进行比较.
- 评估深度学习对积极的公共卫生干预措施的有用性.
主要方法:
- 训练有素的深度学习分类器 (LSTM,ResNet) 在模拟数据上使用Lévy噪声.
- 利用关键减速的通用信号进行分类器训练.
- 用一个随机合的行为疾病模型来进行数据模拟.
主要成果:
- 深度学习分类器在敏感性和特异性方面显著超过传统指标.
- 模型表现出强大的性能,即使在非高斯的Lévy噪声下.
- 分类器在经验数据上提供了数量清晰和可解释的结果.
结论:
- 深度学习为行为流行病学中关键转变的早期检测提供了一种强大的方法.
- 与深度学习集成的实时社交媒体监控可以增强疾病爆发的预测.
- 这些先进的预警系统可以促进积极的公共卫生干预.
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