在鱼类慢性研究中使用基于个体的模型评估内分泌敏感的角终点的人口相关性
Alice Tagliati1, Charles R E Hazlerigg1,2, Edward R Salinas3
1Enviresearch Ltd., Newcastle-Upon-Tyne NE1 4DP, U.K.
Environmental science & technology
|September 30, 2025
概括
人口模型可以评估对野生动物的化学风险. 像生育率这样的效应减少20%很少导致种群减少,除了鱼,这表明需要对特定物种进行风险评估.
科学领域:
- 环境毒理学环境毒理学
- 生态毒理学 生态毒理学
- 人口生态学 人口生态学
背景情况:
- 种群模型对于评估对野生动物种群的化学影响是有价值的.
- 环境风险评估这些模型的监管应用仍然有限.
- 内分泌干扰化学物质 (EDC) 对个体生物和潜在的种群构成风险.
研究的目的:
- 模拟个体级EDC效应在人口层面的后果.
- 评估评估标准对人口显著性的适用性.
- 为EDC风险评估制定一个标准化的"暴露无关,分子独立"的方法.
主要方法:
- 基于个体的种群模型用于三种鱼类:鱼,棕鱼和斑马鱼.
- 对六个EDC终点 (生育率,受精率,性别比率,行为) 的模拟效应,大小 (10-90%) 和持续时间不同.
- 评估人口反应以确定显著性值.
主要成果:
- 大多数测试终点的20%的减少并没有导致物种之间的人口减少.
- 鱼种群的数量下降,生育率或受精率减少了20%.
- 较低的效果大小 (10%) 通常不会产生人口层面的反应.
结论:
- 该研究强调了对EDC影响的特定物种敏感性.
- 对于某些物种和终点,20%的效应值可能不足.
- 开发的建模方法可以改善EDCs的监管危险评估.
相关概念视频
01:23Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least squares (OLS)...
01:23Toxicity Testing in Animals
Toxicity tests in animals are grounded on two main assumptions: first, the effects observed in laboratory animals can be extrapolated to humans, especially when adjusted for body surface area; second, high-dose exposure in animals is essential to identify potential human hazards from lower doses. This is based on the quantal dose-response concept, which faces the challenge of extrapolating results from relatively few test animals to much larger human populations. For example, a 0.01% incidence...