使用普通机器学习方法预测英格兰地区COVID-19住院情况
Haowei Wang1, Kin On Kwok2, Ruiyun Li3
1School of Public Health, Imperial College London, UK; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, UK.
Epidemics
|September 30, 2025
概括
通过使用XGBoost和移动数据,实现了准确的COVID-19住院预测. 为了获得更丰富的信息,建议使用N-tile顺序级别,以改善流行病期间的医疗需求管理.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19大流行给医疗保健系统带来了压力,因此需要对呼吸道感染进行有效的短期预测.
- 现有的定量预测将入院治疗视为连续的,但卫生管理人员更喜欢离散的需求水平.
- 对于精确地预测离散医疗需求的次国家级预测,存在有限的工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种方法,以准确地预测COVID-19住院的次国家级例行预测.
- 评估不同类型的数据 (流行病学,天气,流动性) 和离散方法对预测准确性的影响.
- 为卫生管理人员提供一个工具,以便在传染病浪潮期间更好地管理医疗保健服务.
主要方法:
- 英格兰的COVID-19住院预测使用区域数据 (2020年3月至2022年12月).
- 使用n-tile和n-uniform方法将住院人数转换为顺序变量.
- 一个XGBoost模型,适应顺序数据,结合了流行病学,天气和流动性预测器.
主要成果:
- 与单独的流行病学数据相比,移动数据显著改善了预测性能.
- 包括天气数据与流行病学和流动性数据一起,产生了与仅使用流行病学和流动性数据的模型相似的结果.
- 预测准确度在不同数量的顺序级别中是强大的.
结论:
- 使用XGBoost与移动数据实现了COVID-19住院患者的准确顺序预测.
- 由于其更丰富的信息内容,建议使用N-tile顺序级别,而不是统一级别.
- 开发的方法为公共卫生和卫生系统管理提供了有价值的工具.
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