量化埃塞俄比亚未检测到的结核病,使用一种新的地理空间建模方法
Haileab Fekadu Wolde1,2,3, Archie C A Clements4, Andargachew Kumsa Erena5
1School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Curtin University, Bentley, WA, Australia. h.wolde@postgrad.curtin.edu.au.
埃塞俄比亚估计有51041例未检测到的结核病 (TB) 病例,主要是在边境地区. 以低社会经济水平地区为重点的有针对性的干预措施和改善大众媒体的访问,可以帮助减少结核病的传播.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 地理空间分析是什么?
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是全球主要的传染性死亡原因.
- 大约有300万个结核病例未被发现,加剧了社区传播.
- 了解未被检测到的结核病的空间分布对于高负担环境中的有针对性的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计埃塞俄比亚国家和地方一级未检测到的结核病例数量.
- 为了确定未被发现的结核病例的空间聚类模式.
- 确定与未检测到的结核病聚集相关的因素.
主要方法:
- 采用贝叶斯地缘统计建模框架.
- 综合国家结核病流行和通知数据与环境变量.
- 使用莫兰索引和空间自相关性局部指标 (LISA) 进行空间分析.
主要成果:
- 埃塞俄比亚估计有51041例未检测到的结核病例 (95%CI:50599-51486).
- 在奥罗米亚 (20,440),阿姆哈拉 (9614) 和南埃塞俄比亚 (6061) 地区预测的主要未检测到的结核病负担.
- 在边境地区和埃塞俄比亚南部观察到的空间聚类;与大众媒体曝光和财富负面相关.
结论:
- 埃塞俄比亚面临着大量未被检测到的结核病负担,在边境地区和医疗保健接入有限的地区进行空间聚类.
- 建议针对低社会经济水平的社区进行有针对性的结核病查.
- 在高负担地区改善大众媒体曝光率可以显著减少未被发现的结核病.
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