通过随机森林调整和自适应决策策略来增强软件努力估计
Priya Varshini A G1, Anitha Kumari K2, Ramakrishnan S3
1Department of Information Technology, Dr. Mahalingam College of Engineering and Technology, Pollachi, Coimbatore, Tamilnadu, India. priyavarshini.a.g@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|September 30, 2025
概括
这项研究通过使用改进的自适应随机森林 (IARF) 模型来增强软件努力估计. IARF模型显著提高了软件开发项目的预测准确性和可靠性.
科学领域:
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
- 软件工程 软件工程 软件工程
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 软件努力估计 (SEE) 对于项目管理,资源分配和规划至关重要.
- 实现精确的SEE预测仍然是软件行业的一个挑战.
- 机器学习算法,特别是随机森林 (RF),显示出提高SEE准确性的前景.
研究的目的:
- 提高软件努力估计模型的准确性和可解释性.
- 通过整合先进技术,引入一个改进的自适应随机森林 (IARF) 模型.
- 在软件开发项目中提供更可靠的决策.
主要方法:
- 实施了一个改进的随机森林 (IRF) 剩余分析,部分依赖地块和特征工程.
- 将IRF扩展到一个自适应模型 (IARF),使用贝叶斯优化与深核学习 (BO-DKL) 进行超参数调整.
- 集成时间序列剩余分析用于自相关性检测和可解释AI (SHAP,LIME) 用于特征解释性.
主要成果:
- 与标准的随机森林 (RF) 模型相比,IARF模型在各种指标上显示出显著的改进.
- 平均改善比率包括:平均绝对误差 (MAE) 的18.5%,根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 的20.3%,R-squared的3.8%,平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 的5.4%.
- 还观察到平均绝对缩放误差 (MASE) 减少7%,预测区间覆盖概率 (PICP) 改善3-5%.
结论:
- 开发的改进适应性随机森林 (IARF) 模型大大提高了软件努力估计的准确性.
- 适应性学习和可解释性技术的结合导致更可靠的预测.
- 这些发现支持在软件开发项目管理中更可靠的决策.
相关概念视频
Survival Tree
388
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
388
Decision Making: Traditional Method
5.1K
The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is decided based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to this claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses, out of which a null hypothesis would be a...
5.1K
Decision Making: P-value Method
6.8K
The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
6.8K
Response Surface Methodology
607
Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is a collection of statistical and mathematical techniques used to develop, improve, and optimize processes. It is particularly valuable when many input variables or factors potentially influence a response variable.
The process of RSM involves several key steps:
The process of RSM involves several key steps:
607
Randomized Experiments
8.9K
The randomization process involves assigning study participants randomly to experimental or control groups based on their probability of being equally assigned. Randomization is meant to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors so that the control group is similar to the treatment group as much as possible. A computer program and a random number generator can be used to assign participants to groups in a way that minimizes bias.
Simple randomization
Simple...
Simple randomization
Simple...
8.9K
Decision Making
898
Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
898

