在中国大陆使用贝叶斯增量回归树模型对手足口病的概率预测
Xiaoran Geng1,2, Yuan Shi3, Yue Ou2
1Department of Research and Teaching, Anyang Tumor Hospital, Anyang, People's Republic of China.
Scientific reports
|October 1, 2025
概括
贝叶斯增量回归树 (BART) 模型改善了手足口病 (HFMD) 在中国的预测. 与ARIMA相比,BART提供了更准确的预测和不确定性估计,有助于公共卫生决策.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 手足口病 (HFMD) 在中国构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 准确的HFMD预测和不确定性量化对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
- 现有的研究主要集中在点预测上,对不确定性估计的概率预测的探索有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估贝叶斯增量回归树 (BART) 概率模型对中国HFMD预测的性能.
- 为了将BART的准确性与传统的ARIMA模型进行比较,用于点和间隔预测.
- 评估BART在为公共卫生决策提供可靠的预测不确定性方面的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用贝叶斯增量回归树 (BART) 概率模型进行点预测和间隔预测.
- 使用ARIMA模型作为比较的基准.
- 分析了2008年6月至2018年12月中国大陆七个地区的每月HFMD病例数据.
主要成果:
- 比起ARIMA模型,BART模型表现出优异的性能,平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 减少了73.465%,根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 减少了16.332%.
- 巴特模型在正确分类概率 (PCC) 中取得了10.432%的改善,达到0.921.9的平均值.
- 间隔预测分析显示,BART模型产生了最小的连续绕覆盖 (CWC) 值,表明更窄,更准确的95%置信间隔.
结论:
- 巴特概率模型非常适合在中国大陆的省级HFMD监测.
- 与传统方法相比,BART在点和间隔预测中提供了更高的准确性.
- 该模型的强大的概括能力和可靠的不确定性量化支持公共卫生工作者做出明智的决策.
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