开发一个优化的参数化方案,从印度所有季节的全球模型中得出闪电威胁产品
Greeshma M Mohan1, M Sandhya2, A Jayakumar2
1National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Noida, UP, 201309, India. greeshma.m90@nic.in.
Scientific reports
|October 1, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种用于预测印度云至地面 (CG) 闪电威胁的新方法. 修订后的PR92-洛佩兹混合 (RPLB) 方案提高了准确性,并减少了早期警告的错误警报.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 闪电物理学 闪电物理学
背景情况:
- 准确预测云至地面 (CG) 闪电对于灾害管理至关重要.
- 现有的闪电参数化方案往往高估了闪电计数和空间范围.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个改进的计划中程CG闪电威胁预测印度.
- 为提升早期预警系统的闪电预测的准确性和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 利用所有季节的全球模型中期预测.
- 评估的价格和Rind (PR92) 和洛佩兹闪电参数化方案与地球网络数据.
- 通过重新定义风暴检测并应用陆地和海洋的回归式权重,开发了修订后的PR92-洛佩兹混合 (RPLB) 方案.
主要成果:
- 最初的方案 (PR92,洛佩兹) 过高估计了闪电数量和空间范围.
- 通过RPLB计划,CG闪光的空间和频率分布得到了改善.
- 与单个方案相比,RPLB显著减少了虚假报警的时间,达到5天的交付时间.
结论:
- 该RPLB计划为预测印度的CG闪电威胁提供了增强的技能.
- 将CG闪光事件分类为威胁级别,为决策支持系统提供了有价值的数据.
- 这种改进的预测能力有助于有效的早期预警和灾难准备.
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