研究延迟退休影响出生率的新机制和路径
Zhang Jinmeng1, Guofeng Guan1, Jie Guan2
1School of Economics, Xinjiang College of Science and Technology, Korla, China.
Frontiers in public health
|October 1, 2025
概括
延迟退休降低了出生率,减少了照顾孩子的时间,尽管增加了经济贡献. 政策应该支持延迟退休,并减少父母的育儿时间成本,以提高生育率.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 护理涉及大量的时间和经济资源,影响生育决策.
- 延迟退休是一个日益增长的趋势,具有潜在的人口和经济后果.
- 现有的模式往往不能完全整合照顾费用和退休决策.
研究的目的:
- 分析延迟退休对出生率的影响,使用重叠世代 (OLG) 模型.
- 量化延迟退休对儿童抚养的时间和经济资源分配的影响.
- 评估延迟退休对社会福利和生育能力的综合影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一个重叠世代 (OLG) 模型,将时间和经济照顾成本纳入其中.
- 模拟分析以检查延迟退休影响出生率的途径.
- 衡量经济照顾费用与儿童抚养总费用的比例.
主要成果:
- 延迟退休导致出生率下降.
- 虽然老年人增加了对照顾者的经济贡献,但这被减少的时间资源所抵消.
- 在最大限度地提高社会福利时,时间和经济资源之间存在反向关系.
结论:
- 延迟退休可以通过增加经济支持来改善社会福利,超过对生育率的负面影响.
- 政策建议包括逐步实施延迟退休,并采取措施减少年轻父母的儿童保育时间成本.
- 支持更高的生育率需要一个平衡的方法,解决养育孩子的经济和时间限制.
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