用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型分析城HPV流行趋势分析:从2012年到2023年的纵向研究
Haoran Yang1,2, Jian Xu3, Hongwei Wang4
1School of Nursing, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
Journal of medical virology
|October 1, 2025
概括
人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 感染率,特别是高风险HPV,在城呈现下降趋势,可能是由于疫苗接种努力. 这项研究强调了特定年龄的感染模式以及HPV疫苗对疾病预防的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 病毒学 病毒学
背景情况:
- 持续高风险的人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 感染是宫癌的主要原因.
- 了解HPV感染趋势和风险因素对于有效的癌症预防策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2012年到2023年,分析惠市HPV感染的流行病学特征.
- 调查HPV感染率随时间的变化趋势,并评估HPV疫苗接种的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 收集和分析了来自五个年龄组的81,397个宫上皮样本.
- 使用商业套件测试23种HPV亚型 (13种高风险,10种低风险).
- 采用Joinpoint回归和贝叶斯结构时间序列 (BSTS) 模型来分析趋势和疫苗接种影响.
主要成果:
- 总体HPV感染率为23.78%,高风险HPV为18.36%. 其中HPV16,52,58,51和68是最常见的.
- 在18-24岁和≥55岁的年龄组中观察到更高的感染率.
- 从2012年到2023年,HPV和高风险HPV感染率显示出明显的下降趋势 (p<0.05).
- 据BSTS模型估计,HPV疫苗接种在2018-2023年期间预防了1705例感染 (14.5%的减少).
结论:
- 城的HPV感染率呈现出明显的年龄分布和基因型流行率.
- 在HPV和高风险HPV感染的下降趋势表明疫苗接种计划的积极影响.
- 这些发现为区域HPV预防和控制策略提供了流行病学基础.
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