修改了MAGIC模型,用于评估和预测中国太湖水化学变化的酸化影响
Taoran Shi1, Xiaoke Zhuo2, Gaoying Xu2
1School of Ecology and Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Environmental science. Processes & impacts
|October 1, 2025
概括
酸沉积,肥和废水排放对湖水化学有重大影响. 减少废水排放可以抑制离子增加,但即使减少二氧化硫排放,酸化效应仍然存在.
科学领域:
- 环境化学环境化学
- 水质管理水质管理
- 生态系统建模 生态系统建模
背景情况:
- 自然水化学受到多种压力因素的影响,包括酸沉积, (N) 肥料和废水排放.
- 对这些对湖等特定水体的综合影响的定量评估是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 量化估计酸沉积,肥和废水排放对太湖水化学的长期影响.
- 在适应性管理场景下使用MAGIC模型模拟和预测湖水化学的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 采用了采集区地下水酸化模型 (MAGIC) 来模拟长期的水化学变化.
- 校准了MAGIC模型,使用太湖的历史水化学数据和田地土壤属性数据.
- 分析了不同离子 (Cl-, Na+, SO42-, Ca2+, Mg2+) 对各种压力因素的敏感性.
主要成果:
- 废水排放显著增加了Cl-,Na+和SO42-度,高达80%.
- 2000年以后,双酸化 (酸沉积和肥) 导致Ca2+和Mg2+的年损失分别增加27%和11%,相比仅酸沉积.
- 根据MAGIC模型的预测,减少废水排放将减少Cl-,Na+和SO42-,但尽管减少了SO2排放,但酸化效应仍然存在.
结论:
- 综合流域管理对于减轻多种压力因素对水化学的复杂影响至关重要.
- 废水排放是太湖Cl-,Na+和SO42-增加的主要驱动因素.
- 由酸沉积和肥驱动的酸化效应对基离子水平构成长期威胁,需要持续的管理策略.
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