连续时间调解模型中直接,间接和总效应的推理和效应大小
Ivan Jacob Agaloos Pesigan1, Michael A Russell1, Sy-Miin Chow2
1Edna Bennett Pierce Prevention Research Center, College of Health and Human Development, Pennsylvania State University.
Psychological methods
|October 2, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了连续时间调度模型中计算效果大小和不确定性的方法,解决了纵向数据分析离散时间方法的局限性.
科学领域:
- 纵向数据分析的数据分析.
- 因果推理的原因推理.
- 心理测量建模 心理测量建模
背景情况:
- 使用纵向数据的调解建模捕获了随时间的动态变化.
- 离散时间向量自回归模型在时间间隔和测量间隔方面存在局限性.
- 连续时间向量自回归模型为分析纵向介导提供了一个替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 探索用于连续时间调度的标准化效果大小测量方法.
- 介绍和比较计算不确定性 (SE和CI) 连续时间调度效应的方法.
- 为自动化和解释这些推理程序提供工具.
主要方法:
- 使用了三角形,蒙特卡洛和参数引导方法.
- 直接,间接和总效应的计算标准误差 (SE) 和置信区间 (CI).
- 开发了用于自动化分析的cTMed R包.
主要成果:
- 证明了在连续时间调度中计算效果大小和不确定性的可行性.
- 对比了不同启动方法的性能,以获得推理准确度.
- 该cTMed套件有助于实际应用和解释.
结论:
- 连续时间调解模型为纵向数据提供了强大的因果推断.
- 提出的方法和工具有助于更好地估计影响及其不确定性.
- 这项工作推进了心理学和社会科学中动态过程的分析.
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