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气候变化和地缘政治风险是否会影响波动? 来自领先经济体的实证证据
Saroj S Prasad1, Veerma Puri2, Priti Bakhshi3
1Department of Economics & Finance, Birla Institute of Technology & Science, Pilani - K. K. Birla, Goa Campus, Goa, India.
Journal of environmental management
|October 2, 2025
概括
全球气候变化增加了意大利,英国和德国的股票市场波动. 地缘政治风险加剧了印度的波动,但在美国和日本却减轻了波动.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化和地缘政治风险是影响金融市场的重要因素.
- 了解它们对股票市场波动的影响对于经济稳定至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有充分解决这些因素对高频股票市场数据的综合影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球气候变化对股票市场波动的影响.
- 检查地缘政治风险对股票市场波动的影响.
- 通过使用高频数据,分析10个有影响力的经济体的这些影响.
主要方法:
- 利用一种新的GARCH-MIDAS方法来分析混合频数据集.
- 编制和分析了21年的高频率每日股市回报数据 (2003年1月至2022年12月).
- 专注于世界上十大最有影响力的经济体.
主要成果:
- 发现全球气候变化增加了意大利,英国和德国的股票市场波动.
- 地缘政治不确定性导致印度股市波动性更高.
- 地缘政治不确定性对美国和日本的股票市场产生了缓解波动的影响.
结论:
- 结果表明,需要采取政策干预措施来缓解气候变化风险和管理地缘政治不确定性.
- 金融市场的稳定需要根据个别经济体的脆弱性和性进行量身定制的政策.
- 国际合作对于制定有效的全球政策来应对这些相互关联的风险至关重要.
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