儿童流感相关脑病症症状的风险因素和预测模型:一项回顾性研究
Dongmei Zhang1, Xiaolong Yu1, Dan Sun2
1Intensive Care Unit, Wuhan Children's Hospital (Wuhan Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital) Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China.
BMC infectious diseases
|October 2, 2025
概括
在患有发烧的儿童中预测流感相关脑病变 (IAES) 症状至关重要. 这项研究确定了关键的风险因素,并开发了严重流感病例早期干预的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 儿童传染病 儿童传染病
- 神经学 神经学
- 临床预测建模临床预测建模
背景情况:
- 流感相关脑病变症状 (IAES) 对患有发烧的儿童构成重大风险.
- 早期识别严重的IAES病例对于及时的医疗干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在患有发烧的儿科流感患者中构建IAES的预测模型.
- 确定与IAES发展相关的独立风险因素.
主要方法:
- 对623名儿科流感患者 (2020-2025) 的临床数据的回顾性分析.
- 在IAES和非IAES团体之间的比较研究.
- 使用SPSS和R进行统计分析,以确定风险因素并构建预测模型.
主要成果:
- 55例 (8.8%) 被诊断出患有IAES.
- 确定了独立的危险因素:的数量,第一次的时间,呼吸速率,,白蛋白和CD4+/CD8+比率.
- 一个临床风险评分工具显示出良好的区分 (AUC=0.926) 和校准 (MSE=0.00049).
结论:
- 对IAES的主要危险因素包括的增加,发烧在第一次发作之前的持续时间,呼吸率升高,高,低专蛋白,CD4+/CD8+比率降低.
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型有助于临床医生评估IAES风险.
- 该模型支持儿童IAES的早期干预和临床决策.
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