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评估气候变化对中国天息地的影响:可持续保护的适应性战略
Ke Zhang1,2, Jun Lin3, Jianghua Zheng1,2
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science Xinjiang University Urumqi China.
Ecology and evolution
|October 3, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着中国的天息地,目前的保护区覆盖率不到11%. 未来的预测显示息地转移,突出显示了胡珀和贝维克天的关键保护差距.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 中国的天息地面临着气候变化和人类活动的严重威胁.
- 由于生态环境的动态变化,现有的保护区可能无效.
- 对未来天息地分布和气候变化下的保护覆盖面的研究是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化下,对中国三种天的息地空间分布进行预测.
- 评估这些息地的当前和未来的保护覆盖面.
- 确定影响天分布的关键环境变量,并为保护策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来预测天 (Cygnus cygnus),贝维克天 (Cygnus columbianus) 和沉默天 (Cygnus olor) 的息地适合性.
- 根据三条共享社会经济路径 (SSP),近期 (2001-2020年) 和未来 (2021-2060年) 的预计息地分布.
- 分析了关键的环境变量,包括斜率,NDVI,接近水和同热度 (Bio3).
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型的准确性很高 (AUC> 0.956,TSS> 0.833).
- 这三种物种适合的息地面积很大 (例如,胡珀天: 44.89 × 10^4 km2).
- 未来的情景表明,总体范围稳定,但适宜性结构发生变化,存在显著的保护差距 (覆盖率<11%) 和对高度适宜息地的保护较低,特别是对于Whooper和Bewick的天.
结论:
- 目前的天息地与中国的保护区网络之间存在重大不匹配.
- 保护规划需要优化,以应对气候变化带来的息地转移.
- 适应性管理策略对于确保长期保护天种群至关重要.
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