当作物失败时,森林随之而来:赞比亚的农业冲击和森林砍伐
Pablo J Ordóñez1, Protensia Hadunka2, Gemma Del Rossi3
1Inter-American Development Bank, Office of Strategic Planning and Development Effectiveness (SPD), Washington, DC 20577.
概括
气候变化影响作物产量,导致农民增加砍伐森林的土地和木炭. 这项研究表明,害虫爆发使赞比亚的森林砍伐增加了一倍,突出了气候负面反循环.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了农业冲击,影响了农民福利,土地利用和森林砍伐.
- 了解这些影响对于可持续的土地管理和气候变化缓解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计农业生产率负面冲击对森林砍伐的影响.
- 调查驱动森林砍伐的机制,以应对这种冲击.
主要方法:
- 利用家庭的初级数据来评估秋季军虫害虫对撒哈拉以南非洲的作物产量和粮食安全的影响.
- 机器学习模型用于玉米产量和森林砍伐,结合害虫适应性数据,以量化森林砍伐率.
主要成果:
- 秋季军虫疫情在三年内使赞比亚的森林砍伐率翻了一番.
- 增加农业用地的扩张和木炭生产是这种森林砍伐的关键驱动因素.
- 森林砍伐的反应在空间上有所不同,偏远和富裕的地区表现出不同的模式.
结论:
- 负面的农业生产力冲击可以触发负面的气候反循环.
- 农民可能会采取增加排放的策略,如土地扩张和木炭生产,以应对产量损失.
- 政策干预应考虑农民反应和市场准入的空间差异.
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