使用可解释的机器学习来更好地了解早产导致的环境和社会经济贡献
Shuyu Li1, Yuqing Dai2, Ying Chen3
1Department of Economics, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|October 4, 2025
概括
空气污染,特别是PM2.5,显著增加了早产风险,特别是在女婴和低教育的母亲身上. 改善空气质量可以降低早产率.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 生殖流行病学 生殖流行病学
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,早产 (PTB) 是婴儿死亡的主要原因.
- 环境空气污染对PTB风险的影响尚未完全理解.
- 现有研究对空气污染物和PTB之间的关联提出了相互矛盾的发现.
研究的目的:
- 量化环境,临床和社会人口因素对PTB风险的贡献.
- 调查环境空气污染,包括PM2.5在PTB中的特定作用.
- 引入和验证用于PTB风险评估的新型AutoML-SHAP框架.
主要方法:
- 在中国西南地区 (2020-2023) 使用了52,642个单独生育的队列.
- 采用自动机器学习 (AutoML) 方法与夏普利添加式扩展 (SHAP) 结合用于特征排名和量化.
- 分析了12个不同的预测因素,包括环境,临床和社会人口统计学变量.
主要成果:
- 环境因素占该模型特征重要性的48.5%.
- 住宅环境PM2.5 (20.7%),高度 (17.3%) 和NDVI (10.5%) 是最重要的PTB预测因素.
- 50μg/m3的PM2.5值显示PTB风险明显增加,在低学历群体中效果放大,女性婴儿的敏感性更高.
结论:
- 自动ML-SHAP框架为全面的PTB风险量化提供了一种可重复的方法.
- 严格的空气质量控制,特别是PM2.5,对于减少早产至关重要.
- 建议针对社会经济差异和空气污染暴露的有针对性的干预措施来缓解PTB.
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