热带过度死亡率的十年性下降和不断变化的人口脆弱性:来自社区规模研究的证据
1Department of Vital Statistics, Division of Health Information, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 201107, Shanghai, China.
Environmental research
|October 4, 2025
概括
热浪在上海造成的过早死亡 (丧失的生命年数) 和过度死亡数量在十年内减少. 脆弱性的转变凸显了有针对性的热适应策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 热浪带来了显著的死亡风险,但在精细的空间尺度上,过度死亡率和过早死亡负担的时间动态尚未得到充分研究.
- 快速的城市老化和日益加剧的热量暴露需要对与热量相关的健康影响进行最新评估.
研究的目的:
- 评估上海街区因高温导致的过度死亡率和失去了生命年数 (YLL) 的十年变化.
- 调查热浪影响的时间动态,并确定脆弱人群.
主要方法:
- 利用来自上海211个街区 (2009-2011年和2019-2021年) 的每日死亡率和气象数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型和多变量元分析来估计邻近特定的热效应.
- 量化可归因于热量的负担,使用年均死亡人数和年度过剩死亡人数 (ED).
主要成果:
- 在过去的十年中,观察到与热相关的死亡负担大幅下降.
- 年均死亡人数显著下降,每年过度死亡人数 (ED) 也显著下降.
- 滞后的热效应缩短了;脆弱性从男性转移到女性,男性,老年人和受教育程度较低的人持续承担更高的负担.
结论:
- 社区层面的分析证实,随着热量暴露的增加,过度死亡率的下降和动态的脆弱性转移.
- 研究结果强调需要具有空间适应性和人口定向的热适应策略.
- 迫切需要更新公共卫生干预措施,以应对气候变化和城市衰老的影响.
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