在COVID-19期间,碳定价和能源绿色通胀
1Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability (GSAIS), Kyoto University, 1, Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8306, Japan.
Journal of environmental management
|October 5, 2025
概括
能源价格上,被称为绿色通货膨胀,是由碳定价驱动的. COVID-19大流行改变了能源与碳的关系,可能加快了这一趋势,并影响了环境和经济政策.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源市场 能源市场
- 气候政策分析 气候政策分析
背景情况:
- 与环境法规 ("绿色化") 相关的成本上升需要进行定量分析.
- "绿色通货膨胀"现象,即由于绿色政策导致的价格上,需要经验研究,特别是关于碳定价.
- 现有的模型缺乏对能源和碳市场之间的价格相关性和波动性的综合方法.
研究的目的:
- 量化分析能源绿色通胀,重点关注碳定价的经验影响.
- 提出并验证能源和碳市场之间的新型价格相关性和波动性模型.
- 检查COVID-19流行病如何影响能源和碳价格之间的关系及其对绿色通胀的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发一种基于购买压力与价格关系的新型价格相关性和波动性模型.
- 使用欧盟配额 (EUA),布伦特原油,ARA煤炭和国家平衡点 (NBP) 天然气的价格数据进行实证分析.
- 通过可靠性检查进行验证,包括向量自回归 (VAR) 模型,格兰杰因果关系测试,调节模式交换模型和碳价格-欧洲VIX分析.
主要成果:
- 碳价格通过绿色通货膨胀的成本推进和需求拉动道影响能源价格.
- 随着COVID-19的流行,能源与碳的关系从理性正相关变为非理性负相关,突出了碳风险.
- 疫情似乎加速了能源绿色通货膨胀,原因是投资者视角从短期转向长期 (超视) 展望.
结论:
- 碳定价显著促进了能源绿色通胀,表现为能源成本的增加.
- COVID-19大流行起到了催化剂作用,通过改变市场动态和投资者行为,加剧了绿色通货膨胀.
- 旨在实现零排放的未来碳定价政策必须仔细考虑和减轻绿色通货膨胀对环境和经济的不利影响.
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