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日本未来的热中风死亡率:气候的影响,人口变化和长期的热适应
Kazutaka Oka1, Vera Ling Hui Phung2, Jinyu He1
1Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan.
Environmental research
|October 5, 2025
概括
在没有热适应 (HA) 的情况下,日本的热中风死亡率预计将在2100年显著增加. 实施HA措施可以大幅减少热中风死亡人数,提高公共卫生规划的有效性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
- 公共卫生准备情况 公共卫生准备情况
背景情况:
- 国际疾病分类 (ICD) - 10:X30代码,表示过度自然热暴露,在日本使用不足.
- 热中风风险受人口变化和人口适应热量的能力 (HA) 的影响.
研究的目的:
- 使用ICD-10:X30.在日本各县预测未来的热中风死亡率.
- 评估人口变化和热量适应对不同气候场景下的热中风风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了五种气候模型和三个温室气体 (GHG) 排放场景 (SSP1-RCP2.6,SSP2-RCP4.5,SSP5-RCP8.5).
- 预计热中风死亡率 (HMR) 和病例 (HMC) 两个年龄组 (<65岁和≥65岁) 基准年,21世纪中期和21世纪末.
- 与考虑长期热适应 (HA) 和不考虑长期热适应 (HA) 的对比预测.
主要成果:
- 没有HA,热中风死亡率 (HMR) 预计到2100年将增加4.26倍 (<65) 和3.63倍 (≥65).
- 在HA的情况下,预计的HMR增加减少到1.76倍 (<65) 和1.49倍 (≥65).
- 热适应措施显著降低了所有情景和时间段的预计热中风死亡率和病例.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,日本的热中风死亡率预计将在本世纪末大幅上升.
- 纳入热适应策略对于减轻热中风风险和改善公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 积极的适应措施可以显著降低日本人口的热相关疾病负担.
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