估计2000-2017年在100个低收入和中等收入国家中,由风吹尘带来的细颗粒物引起的五岁以下死亡率
Ruohan Wang1, Hong Lu1, Ning Kang1
1Institute of Reproductive and Child Health / National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health and Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics / Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (PKU), School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing 100191, China.
National science review
|October 6, 2025
概括
风吹灰尘PM2.5在低收入和中等收入国家显著增加了五岁以下儿童死亡风险. 这项研究量化了归因于PM2.5尘埃的大量儿童死亡负担,突出了针对性卫生干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 风吹尘埃PM2.5是低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 的主要空气污染物.
- 尘埃PM2.5对五岁以下儿童死亡率 (U5M) 的影响尚不清楚,原因是缺乏特定的暴露-反应功能.
- 现有研究经常使用一般的PM2.5暴露-反应函数,可能低估了与尘埃相关的死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 评估长期粉尘PM2.5暴露与LMIC中U5M之间的关联.
- 为尘埃PM2.5和U5M开发一个特定的暴露-反应函数 (ERF).
- 估计在LMICs中归因于PM2.5尘埃的死亡负担.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率的PM2.5地图和尘埃比率数据.
- 应用固定效应的考克斯模型来分析53个LMIC的1,411,851名儿童的数据.
- 为尘埃PM2.5和U5M开发了一个非线性ERF,外推到100个LMIC.
主要成果:
- 尘埃PM2.5暴露量增加10μg/m3与U5M风险增加7.13%相关.
- 开发的ERF在低度下没有值效应,在高度下增加得更快.
- 估计尘埃PM2.5贡献了大约1.74万 (2000年),1.30万 (2010年) 和1.07万 (2017) 的U5Ms.
结论:
- 尘埃PM2.5是LMIC中儿童死亡率的重要,但经常被低估的因素.
- 使用特定尘埃ERF的死亡负担估计超过了一般PM2.5ERF的死亡负担估计.
- 强调需要早期预警系统和有针对性的干预措施,以减轻尘埃PM2.5对儿童的健康影响.
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