使用代理数据解开政策影响:在COVID-19大流行期间,哪些关闭政策影响了失业率?
1Harvard University and Harvard Medical School.
概括
非药物干预 (NPI),如企业关闭,在COVID-19早期对失业索赔产生了很小的直接影响. 大多数失业源于其他因素,而不是特定的NPI.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 由于COVID-19大流行,美国各州需要快速实施非药物干预措施 (NPI).
- 了解各种NPI的直接经济影响对于政策评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 解开不同州级NPI对失业赔偿的短期直接影响.
- 量化特定NPI在疫情初期对失业增长的贡献.
主要方法:
- 在事件研究框架中利用高频谷歌搜索数据和NPI公告日期.
- 利用NPI的杆差异时间 (例如,业务关闭,家庭停留命令) 来识别个别影响.
- 使用代理结果来估计因果影响,结果数据有限.
主要成果:
- 餐厅/酒吧的限制和非必要的业务关闭分别解释了6.0%和6.4%的初始失业索赔.
- 其他NPI,包括学校关闭和大规模集会禁令,没有显示州失业救济索赔的直接增加.
- 大多数短期失业率的增长是由于直接NPI任务之外的因素造成的.
结论:
- 特定的NPI,如企业关闭,对疫情早期的失业率有有限的直接影响.
- 更广泛的经济因素,消费需求转变和私营部门政策在失业率上升中发挥了更重要的作用.
- 政策见解表明,需要对NPI经济后果有细微的理解.
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