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在最近致命的欧洲夏季,熟练预测与热有关的死亡率
Emma Holmberg1,2,3, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano4,5,6,7, Joan Ballester4
1Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala 75236, Sweden.
概括
欧洲面临着日益严重的热浪,导致数千人因热而死亡. 这项研究使用温度预测预测死亡率,帮助热健康预警系统适应气候变暖.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 欧洲正在经历创纪录的热浪,在2022年和2023年,与热量相关的死亡率显著.
- 预计气候变化表明这些极端热情事件将变得更加频繁,需要改进公共卫生战略.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个统计流行病学框架,用于预测欧洲与热有关的死亡率.
- 评估这些预测与热浪期间的温度变化相关的技巧.
主要方法:
- 将统计流行病学框架应用于预测温度,提前最多两周.
- 专注分析了欧洲2022年和2023年夏季的异常热浪.
- 评估了每日与热有关的死亡率预测技能及其与温度的相关性.
主要成果:
- 与热相关的死亡率预测技能在欧洲各不相同.
- 在大多数地区,较温和的温度,接近最低死亡率值,与更高的预测技能有关.
- 相反,一些最热的欧洲地区在更高的温度下表现出更好的预测技能.
结论:
- 与热相关的死亡率预测提供了宝贵的见解,特别是在热相关死亡率高的地区.
- 地方卫生当局应将与热相关的死亡率预测信息纳入现有的热预警系统.
- 这种方法支持社会适应气候变暖和减轻热浪影响.
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