通过基于网格搜索的预测建模和优化,通过COVID-19死亡率和营养
Ahmed M Elshewey1, Yasser Fouad2, Mona Jamjoom3
1Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Computers and Information, Suez University, P.O.Box:43221, Suez, Egypt.
Scientific reports
|October 6, 2025
概括
营养显著影响COVID-19死亡率. 这项研究使用机器学习模型分析饮食因素,发现优化的梯度增强回归器最能预测COVID-19死亡率,强调营养.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 营养科学 营养科学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- COVID-19,特别是Omicron变种,在全球造成了数百万人的死亡.
- 营养在疾病抵抗力和健康结果方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 脂肪,蛋白质和蔬菜等饮食成分与COVID-19的严重程度和死亡率有关.
研究的目的:
- 调查饮食摄入量与COVID-19死亡率之间的关系.
- 评估机器学习模型在预测营养相关疾病耐药性的有效性.
- 根据营养数据,确定最佳的机器学习模型来预测COVID-19死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用了COVID-19营养数据集,其属性包括脂肪百分比,热量摄入量,食物供应量和蛋白质水平.
- 应用了五种机器学习模型:梯度增强回归器 (GBR),随机森林 (RF),拉索回归,决策树 (DT) 和贝叶斯山脊 (BR).
- 使用网格搜索 (GS) 对GBR模型和使用R2,MAE,MAPE和MSE的评估模型进行超参数优化.
主要成果:
- 梯度增强回归器 (GBR) 模型最初在测试模型中显示出最佳性能.
- 没有优化的GBR实现了0.963的R2,0.1512的MSE,0.2262的MAE和0.1351.1的MAPE.
- 网格搜索优化显著提高了GBR模型的性能,将R2提高到0.994.4.
结论:
- 网格搜索优化梯度提升回归器 (GS-GBR) 显示了对COVID-19死亡率的卓越预测准确性.
- 营养因素是COVID-19结果的重要预测因素.
- 机器学习模型,特别是优化的GBR,可以改善营养相关疾病耐药性的预测.
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
645
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
645
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
1.0K
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
1.0K
Assumptions of Survival Analysis
392
Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
392
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
896
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
896
Pharmacokinetic Models: Comparison and Selection Criterion
334
Physiological and compartmental models are valuable tools used in studying biological systems. These models rely on differential equations to maintain mass balance within the system, ensuring an accurate representation of the dynamic processes at play.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
Physiological models take a detailed approach by considering specific molecular processes. They can predict drug distribution, metabolism, and elimination changes, providing a comprehensive understanding of how drugs interact with the body.
334
Metabolic States of the Body: Fasting and Starvation
2.7K
During the initial hours of fasting, the body uses up its glycogen stores as an energy source. Once these glycogen reserves are depleted, the body begins breaking down stored triglycerides and structural proteins. During this stage, glycerol becomes a key substrate for gluconeogenesis, while free fatty acids undergo beta-oxidation to provide energy for tissues, such as skeletal muscle. In the fasting state, the body spares protein breakdown as much as possible to conserve muscle and structural...
2.7K


