通过机器学习算法,利用实时天气变化预测作物疾病的严重程度
Amit Bijlwan1,2, Rajeev Ranjan3,4, Manendra Singh5,6
1Department of Agrometeorology, G.B Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Udham Singh Nagar, 263145, Pantnagar, Uttarakhand, India.
Scientific reports
|October 6, 2025
概括
机器学习模型使用天气数据准确地预测小麦黄和粉状的严重程度. 人工神经网络 (ANN) 和随机森林 (RF) 为农民提供可靠的疾病预测.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 小麦疾病,特别是黄和粉,对作物产量构成重大威胁.
- 准确的疾病严重程度预测对于有效的作物管理和产量优化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将气象变量与机器学习相结合,用于预测小麦疾病的严重程度.
- 评估人工神经网络 (ANN) 和其他机器学习模型在预测黄和粉方面的性能.
主要方法:
- 实地实验是在两个生长季节进行的,播种日期各不相同.
- 每周的疾病严重程度评估与实时气象数据相结合.
- 使用人工神经网络 (ANN),随机森林 (RF) 和规则化的回归模型 (弹性网,拉索,) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 对黄色生 (R2=0.93验证) 和粉状菌 (R2=0.95验证) 的预测准确度都很高.
- 随机森林模型也表现出强的性能 (R2=0.93和R2=0.90的验证,分别).
- 蒸发,温度,风速和湿度被确定为通过主要成分分析 (PCA) 影响疾病发病率的关键气象因素.
结论:
- 机器学习,特别是ANN,显示出准确预测小麦疾病严重程度的巨大潜力.
- 这些预测能力可以成为农民决策支持系统的基础.
- 基于疾病预测的知情决策可以导致小麦产量优化和减少作物损失.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
488
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
488
What is Climate?
20.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
20.4K
What is Weather?
19.7K
Overview
19.7K
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
4.0K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
4.0K
Precipitation Processes
5.0K
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
5.0K
Light Acquisition
9.4K
In order to produce glucose, plants need to capture sufficient light energy. Many modern plants have evolved leaves specialized for light acquisition. Leaves can be only millimeters in width or tens of meters wide, depending on the environment. Due to competition for sunlight, evolution has driven the evolution of increasingly larger leaves and taller plants, to avoid shading by their neighbors with contaminant elaboration of root architecture and mechanisms to transport water and nutrients.
9.4K


