基于组合模型的中国两种破坏性虫的潜在分布预测
Xueping Shi1, Mingli Yu1, Yongli Fu1
1College of Plant Protection, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, P. R. China.
Bulletin of entomological research
|October 7, 2025
概括
气候变化影响了水虫:水虫和水虫. RWWs 是一个RWWs.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 侵入性物种 生态学 生态学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 大米水 (RWW) 和大米 (RW) 是中国造成经济损失的重大害虫.
- 有效的害虫管理需要了解它们的分布模式.
研究的目的:
- 预测气候变化下的RWW和RW的当前和未来潜在分布.
- 分析适合区域的变化,分布转移和利基重叠.
- 确定影响害虫分布的关键气候因素.
主要方法:
- 使用R.中的Biomod2包进行物种分布建模.
- 在三个温室气体排放场景下模拟害虫分布.
- 对生物气候变量 (Bio10,Bio13,Bio14) 和利基重叠指标 (Schoener D,I) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 在2023年,合适的面积为RWWs的538.52 × 10^4平方公里和RWs的376.05 × 10^4平方公里.
- 铁路线向西南/东北扩张;铁路线向中国东北部扩张. RWs的合适面积是稳定的;RWs正在下降.
- 高利基重叠 (D=0.658,I=0.816) 集中在中国中部,东部和南部. 预计分布中心体将在西省内转移.
结论:
- 降水 (Bio13,Bio14) 和温度 (Bio10) 是害虫分布的关键驱动因素.
- 未来的气候变化可能会导致适合RWs的面积减少.
- 这些发现为在中国制定有针对性的害虫控制战略提供了基础.
关键词:
埃奇诺克尼莫斯 (Echinocnemus squameus) 是一个状的动物.利索霍普特鲁斯 (Lissorhoptrus) 或瑞索菲勒斯 (Oryzophilus) 是一种的植物.组合模型组合模型组合模型侵入性外来物种的入侵性外来物种.潜在的分布区域可能是分布区域.更多相关视频
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