临时就业和第一胎:利用澳大利亚和德国的小组数据对潜在机制的路径分析
Inga Laß1, Irma Mooi-Reci2, Martin Bujard3
1Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
Demography
|October 7, 2025
概括
临时工作,就像临时或定期合同一样,与较少的首胎有关. 较低的工资是关键原因,影响临时工的生育决定.
科学领域:
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,临时劳动合同越来越普遍.
- 之前的研究表明,临时工作与生育率之间存在负面关联.
- 推动这种关系的具体机制需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- 检查工资,财务满意度,工作任期和工作不安全的调解作用.
- 为了在两个不同的国家背景下比较这些途径:澳大利亚和德国.
- 了解临时工作如何影响过渡到第一胎.
主要方法:
- 使用事件历史和路径分析模型.
- 分析了澳大利亚家庭,收入和劳动力动力学调查 (n=28,530) 和德国社会经济小组 (n=31,608) 19年间的纵向数据.
- 研究了临时工作和第一个出生之间的调解途径.
主要成果:
- 澳大利亚的临时工作 (男性和女性) 和德国的固定合同 (女性) 与永久就业相比,与第一个出生的可能性较低有关.
- 较低的工资显著地解释了这两个性别的生育率差异.
- 工作任期 (德国) 和工作不安全 (澳大利亚) 对女性的关系进行了调解,但对任何一个群体来说,财务满意度并没有调解.
结论:
- 客观的经济劣势,主要是较低的工资,是临时工推迟第一次分娩的关键因素.
- 主观的就业不安全和财务满意度并不是临时工中第一胎决定的普遍显著调解者.
- 针对金融安全的政策干预可能对支持临时就业的生育决策至关重要.
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