1940年至2023年期间,欧洲各地的热应力变化
Luminiţa Mărmureanu1, Bogdan Antonescu2,3,4, Dragoş Ene1
1National Institute for Earth Physics, Călugăreni 12, 077125, Măgurele, Ilfov, Romania.
International journal of biometeorology
|October 7, 2025
概括
欧洲正在经历一个大陆向温和的热应力条件的转变. 寒冷压力在北方下降最快,而热压力在南部地区加剧,这是由气温上升和湿度和风力模式的变化所推动的.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 欧洲的长期热应激及其驱动因素 (1940-2023) 对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
- 评估热应激脆弱性对于适应策略至关重要,特别是在城市化地区.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用通用热气候指数 (UTCI) 在欧洲调查热应力及其驱动因素的长期变化.
- 引入和应用热脆弱性指数,以评估热应力的影响.
- 分析热应力趋势的区域和城市水平变化.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5-HEAT再分析数据提取从1940-2023的UTCI值.
- 分析了2米空气温度,平均辐射温度,相对湿度和风速的趋势.
- 开发并应用了南欧和东欧的热脆弱性指数.
主要成果:
- 观察到大陆向温和的热条件转移,北部的寒冷压力下降,南部的热压力加剧.
- 确定了空气上升和平均辐射温度作为主要驱动因素,以及湿度和风速的变化.
- 报告指出,中欧/东欧部分地区的风速下降,UTCI增加,冬季的变暖速度比夏季的热量压力增加更快.
- 在大陆城市 (如米兰) 与沿海地区 (如马德里) 的热应力影响更大.
- 南欧和东欧对热应激的脆弱性最高.
结论:
- 欧洲的热应力正在向温和条件迁移,但区域差异和城市影响需要定制的缓解策略.
- 调查结果支持基于证据的政策制定,用于热风险管理,整合气候和社会经济因素.
- 解决城市化和气候变化需要了解局部热应力和脆弱性.
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