使用HyMoLAP基于降雨-流水模型的框架,与贝叶斯神经网络集成在贝宁乌梅河流域的贝叶斯神经网络进行多步前进的流量和不确定性预测
Sianou Ezéckiel Houénafa1, Olatunji Johnson2, Erick K Ronoh3
1Department of Mathematics, Pan African University Institute for Basic Sciences, Technology and Innovation, Nairobi, Kenya.
PloS one
|October 7, 2025
概括
这项研究使用基于最小动作原理 (HyMoLAP) 的水文模型和贝叶斯长期短期记忆 (贝叶斯 LSTM) 来提高流量预测,用于不确定性量化. 综合方法为水资源管理提供可靠的多天流量预测和不确定性间隔.
科学领域:
- 环境水文学环境水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 计算式水文科学 计算机水文科学
背景情况:
- 多步骤流量预测对于水资源管理至关重要,但由于预测不准确而面临挑战.
- 现有的数据驱动方法往往缺乏对水文预测的稳健不确定性量化.
- 基于最小行动原则 (HyMoLAP) 的水文模型在日常降雨-流水模拟中表现出有希望.
研究的目的:
- 扩展HyMoLAP模型用于多天前的流量预测.
- 在流量预测中集成贝叶斯长短期记忆 (贝叶斯 LSTM) 进行不确定性量化 (UQ).
- 评估Uémé河流盆地的综合框架的性能和可靠性,贝宁.
主要方法:
- 这项研究适应了HyMoLAP模型,用于多步骤的流量预测.
- 贝叶斯式LSTM被纳入为提供概率预测和量化预测不确定性.
- 合并的HyMoLAP-贝叶斯式LSTM框架应用于Bonou和Savè分捕获区.
主要成果:
- 基于HyMoLAP的框架实现了高的纳什-萨特克利夫效率 (NSE) 值,从0.997到0.799跨次捕获量和交付时间.
- 性能与标准LSTM相当或略高于标准LSTM,在较长的交付时间中存在较小的差异.
- 用UQ方法产生了可靠的预测间隔,大约90%的观察数据属于90%可信度间隔.
结论:
- 基于HyMoLAP的框架与贝叶斯式LSTM有效地提高了多天流量预测的准确性,并提供了关键的不确定性信息.
- 综合模型证明了水资源管理应用的强大性能和可靠的不确定性量化.
- 这种方法为改善数据稀缺地区的水文预测和在不确定性下管理水资源提供了有价值的工具.
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